Benchmark crude oil prices plunged to their lowest levels in four years on a sharp escalation in trade tensions and the prospect of higher supplies from some OPEC+ countries.
Global oil demand growth for 2025 has been revised down by 300 kb/d, to 730 kb/d, as escalating trade tensions have negatively impacted the economic outlook.
Growth is expected to slow further in 2026, to 690 kb/d, but risks to the forecasts remain rife given the fast-moving macro backdrop.
World oil supply rose by 590 kb/d to 103.6 mb/d in March, up 910 kb/d y-o-y, with non-OPEC+ leading both monthly and annual gains.
OPEC+ will lift output targets by 411 kb/d in May, but the increase may be substantially lower given overproduction by some countries.
Global supply growth for 2025 has been cut by 260 kb/d to 1.2 mb/d, due to a decrease in US and Venezuelan output.
Production in 2026 is set to rise by 960 kb/d, with offshore projects taking the lead.
Global crude runs are forecast to average 83.2 mb/d this year, as demand growth expectations cut the projected annual increase by 230 kb/d to 340 kb/d.
In 2026, throughputs are set to rise by 360 kb/d to 83.6 mb/d.
Global observed oil inventories rose by 21.9 mb to 7 647 mb in February but still hovered near the bottom of the five-year range.
Crude, NGLs and feedstocks surged by 41.2 mb, of which OECD onshore stocks accounted for 14.1 mb.
Oil products fell by 19.2 mb as a 34.2 mb reduction in the OECD overwhelmed gains in oil on water. Preliminary data indicate global oil stocks increased further in March, led by crude builds in the non-OECD and oil on water.