| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | Australia | RBA Meeting's Minutes | | | | |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | February | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y | February | 5.8% | 6% | 5.9% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | March | 16.5 | 30.3 | 18.7 |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | February | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 06:45 | France | CPI, m/m | March | 0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 06:45 | France | CPI, y/y | March | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, but remained near a three-year low, while investors tried to make sense of the drastic changes in US tariff policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.14% to 99.78. Since the beginning of April, the index has fallen by 4.27%, and last week reached its lowest level starting from April 5, 2022. The market's attention has been focused on the ever-changing tariff headlines, as the U.S. exempted smartphones and other electronics from its duties on China over the weekend, which brought some relief, although President Donald Trump's comments suggest that the postponement is likely to be short-lived. Trump's imposition and then abrupt postponement of most tariffs on goods imported into the United States has sowed confusion, increasing uncertainty for investors and policymakers around the world. All of these events are fueling a slow but steady rotation out of dollar assets. In addition, due to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields last week, analysts and investors questioned U.S. bonds' status as the world's safest assets. Meanwhile, yesterday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that Trump's tariff policy is a serious shock to the US economy, which could lead to Fed rate cuts to prevent a recession, even if inflation remains high. Traders are pricing in 0.86% of cuts from the Fed for the rest of the year.
The pound rose moderately against the US dollar, helped by data on the UK labor market. According to the report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the unemployment rate (for people aged 16 years and over) remained at 4.4% in December 2024 to February 2025, confirming economists' forecasts. This is above estimates of a year ago, but largely unchanged in the latest quarter. The claimant count increased in March by 18,700 on the month, to 1.766 million. This was the strongest growth since July 2024. Economists had expected an increase of 30,300 after an increase of 16,500 in February (revised from +44,200). The data also showed that from December 2024 to February 2025, the growth in average total pay (including bonuses) and regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 5.6% per annum (+5.6% in the previous three months) and 5.9% per annum (+5.8% in the previous three months). Economists expected an increase by 5.7% for total pay and by 6% for regular pay. Adjusted for inflation, wage growth was 2.1% for regular pay and 1.9% for total pay in December 2024 to February 2025.