India’s consumer inflation likely remained stable in March at 3.60%, nearly unchanged from February’s 3.61%, according to a Reuters poll. This pause follows four straight months of decline, with rising gold prices offsetting stable food costs.
Economists noted that vegetable prices fell, but less sharply than earlier in the year. Meanwhile, gold prices surged over 7% in March amid global trade tensions, limiting a drop in core inflation. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is estimated to have risen slightly to 4.1% year-on-year from February's estimated 3.9% to 4.0%.
Despite inflation staying well within the Reserve Bank of India’s 2–6% target range, the central bank is expected to cut interest rates on April 9, with another cut likely in August to support slowing growth.
Looking ahead, rising temperatures and uneven rainfall may push food prices higher. The India Meteorological Department has warned of widespread heat waves, raising concerns about inflationary pressures in the coming months.
Forecasts for March inflation ranged from 3.2% to 3.9%. Wholesale inflation likely rose to 2.50% from 2.38% in February.