China’s exports jumped 12.4% year-on-year in March, marking the strongest growth in five months. The surge was largely driven by companies frontloading shipments ahead of a steep hike in U.S. tariffs, as tensions between the world’s two largest economies continue to escalate.
U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed cumulative tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods, including a 20% duty tied to Beijing’s alleged role in fentanyl exports. In retaliation, China has raised tariffs on American imports by up to 125%, halting some agricultural imports such as soybeans, which plunged 36.8% in March.
Imports into China fell 4.3% year-on-year, reflecting weak domestic demand and deepening deflationary pressure. Despite efforts to boost the economy post-COVID, confidence remains low, especially amid a lingering property crisis.
Trade surplus was $102.64 billion in March, down slightly from $104.8 billion in December, the most recent comparable reading, but roughly in line with the level recorded a year earlier. Economists had expected a decline in trade surplus to $77 billion.
Trade tensions have added uncertainty for global businesses, disrupting supply chains and delaying investment plans. Although Trump’s administration recently granted tariff exemptions for certain electronics, Beijing has called for a full rollback of what it terms "unilateral" measures.
Economists warn that the trade war could slash trade volumes and hinder global growth. Investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Citi have already lowered China’s 2025 GDP growth forecasts to around 4%, below the government’s 5% target.
With exports being one of the few bright spots in China’s economy, calls are growing for Beijing to roll out stronger stimulus to support domestic demand and offset external shocks.