European
Central Bank released account of its March 5-6
monetary policy meeting, at which its policymakers decided to lower three key
interest rates by 25 basis points. It said
that:
- Decision to cut the deposit facility rate was
justified by updated assessment of the inflation outlook, dynamics of
underlying inflation and strength of monetary policy transmission;
- Point was made that likely shocks on the horizon,
including from escalating trade tensions, and uncertainty more generally,
risked significantly weighing on growth. It was argued that these factors could
increase the risk of undershooting the inflation target in the medium term;
- It was argued that the recent appreciation of the
euro and the decline in energy prices together with the cooling labour market
and well-anchored inflation expectations, mitigated concerns about the upward
revision to the near-term inflation profile and upside risks to inflation more
generally;
- It was argued that being prudent amid uncertainty
did not necessarily equate to being gradual in adjusting the interest rate;
- It was contended that high levels of uncertainty called
for caution in policy-setting and especially in communication;
- Inflation was no longer foreseen to return to 2%
target in 2025 in the latest projections and the date had now been pushed out
to the first quarter of 2026. Moreover, the latest revision to the projected
path meant that inflation would by that time have remained above target for
almost five years;
- Members discussed in more detail the extent to which
monetary policy could still be described as restrictive following proposed
interest rate cut;
- It was argued that it was no longer possible to be
confident that monetary policy was restrictive;
- It was also noted that a deposit facility rate of
2.50% was within, or at least at around the upper bound of, the range of
Eurosystem staff estimates for the natural or neutral interest rate;
- Members reiterated that the Governing Council
remained determined to ensure that inflation would stabilise sustainably at its
2% medium-term target;
- High uncertainty underscored the importance of
following a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the
appropriate monetary policy stance