| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | Germany | Producer Price Index (YoY) | February | 0.5% | 1% | 0.7% |
| 07:00 | Germany | Producer Price Index (MoM) | February | -0.1% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | February | 2.8 | 7.9 | 44.2 |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | January | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y | January | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | January | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 08:00 | Eurozone | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | | | | |
| 08:30 | Switzerland | SNB Interest Rate Decision | | 0.5% | 0.25% | 0.25% |
USD weakened against most of its major counterparts in the European session on Thursday, as investors digested the UK’s labour market data while awaiting the Bank of England’s policy decision.
The (ONS) reported that the number of employed people in Britain rose by 144,000 in the three months to January 2025, following a downwardly revised gain of 88,000 in the previous three-month period. This represented the highest reading in three months and was above economists' forecast of a 95,000 increase. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.4%, matching economists’ expectations.
The report also showed that the wage growth including bonuses slowed to 5.8% YoY in three months to January from an upwardly revised 6.1% YoY in the previous period, slightly below economists’ prediction of 5.9% YoY. Excluding bonuses, the growth remained unchanged at 5.9% YoY, in line with economists’ expectations.
The BoE will announce its latest policy decision at 12:00 GMT. Expectations are for the British central bank to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 4.5% today. Markets will scrutinize the Bank’s policy statements and the comments of its governor Andrew Bailey.
Given signs of stability in the UK jobs market and sticky services inflation and wages, the BoE is expected to reiterate that the current gradual pace of interest rate reductions is to continue.
Markets are now pricing in nearly 58 basis points of policy easing by the end of the year, which implies more than two 25-basis-point rate cuts.