| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 03:00 | Japan | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose against major currencies, retreating from a new 5-month low reached yesterday, while investors adjusted their positions ahead of the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.43% to 103.69. Yesterday, the index fell by 0.12%, and reached its lowest level since October 16, 2024. At the same time, the index has lost 3.7% since the beginning of the month amid Trump's tariff policy and increased fears of a recession in the United States. As for the Fed meeting, consensus estimates suggest that the interest rate will remain at 4.5%, but the focus will be on the Fed's statements regarding Trump's policy and its impact on the US economy and the trajectory of monetary policy. Experts said that the forecasts and distribution of risks are both likely to reflect stagflation: weaker growth and higher inflation. Overall, traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by almost 0.6% by the end of the year.
The yen rose 0.1% against the US dollar on the back of the results of the Bank of Japan meeting and statements by Central Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda. Japan’s central bank maintained its key interest rate at 0.5% in a unanimous vote, aligning with market expectations. The decision comes as the country assesses potential risks from U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) acknowledged moderate economic recovery but warned of uncertainties, particularly regarding trade and domestic wage and price trends. Analysts anticipate a rate hike later this year, with HSBC’s Fred Neumann predicting a move in June, contingent on evidence of sustained wage growth. The BOJ previously raised rates in January from 0.25% to 0.5%, its highest level since 2008, following the end of its extensive stimulus program. Meanwhile, Kazuo Ueda stated that consumption is somewhat weak when looking at indicators that the BOJ releases, but we see this as due to technical factors. "We'll look carefully at economic and price developments, particularly price moves. But we won't be raising rates when the economy is in very bad shape," Ueda said, adding that in terms of economic impact, short- and medium-term rates are the biggest and they are still deeply in negative territory in real terms, and when looking at the entire yield curve, their levels are still underlining economic activity.