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30.01.2025

Asian session review: the US dollar shows minimal change

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
00:30AustraliaRBA Bulletin    
06:30FranceGDP, Y/YQuarter IV1.2%1.1%0.7%
06:30FranceConsumer spending December0.2%0.2%0.7%
06:30FranceGDP, q/qQuarter IV0.4%0%-0.1%


During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies, while market participants continue to analyze the results of the Fed meeting.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.05% to 107.90. Yesterday, the index rose by 0.12% as the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected. The Fed statement dropped a few clues about the reasoning behind the decision to keep rates steady. It offered a somewhat more optimistic view on the labor market while losing a key reference from the December statement that inflation “has made progress toward” the Fed’s 2% inflation goal. Yet, Chairman Jerome Powell stated that progress was still being made and rates were "meaningfully" above neutral, implying there was still plenty of scope to cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see an 18% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in March (compared to 26.5% a week ago). Overall, Fed fund futures still impose around 48 basis points of easing this year (compared to 49 basis points earlier in the week), but the next move is not expected until June. Meanwhile, experts have warned that Donald Trump's policies remain a risk to the Fed's policy prospects, with new tariffs likely to be imposed on Canada, Mexico and possibly China on Saturday. 

The yen rose 0.4% against the US dollar amid expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to tighten monetary policy, while other central banks prefer to lower interest rates. Today, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with its forecasts. Traders currently expect one more 0.25% increase this year, potentially as soon as July.

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