The Conference
Board reported on Wednesday that its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. slipped
0.1 per cent m-o-m in December to 101.6 (2016=100), following an upwardly revised
0.4 m-o-m increase (from +0.3 per cent m-o-m) in November.
Economists had predicted
the indicator to be unchanged m-o-m.
The report also
revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. jumped
0.4 per cent m-o-m to 114.1
in December after an upwardly
revised 0.2 per cent m-o-m gain (from +0.1
per cent m-o-m) in the previous four months. Meanwhile, its Lagging Economic
Index (LAG) for the U.S. edged up 0.1
per cent m-o-m to 118.5, following a downwardly
revised 0.2 per cent m-o-m advance (from
+0.3 per cent m-o-m) in November.
Commenting on
the latest data, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle
Indicators at the Conference Board, said that low consumer confidence about
future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an
increase in initial claims for unemployment, and a decline in building permits
contributed to the U.S. LEI’s decline in the final month of 2024. “Still, half
of the 10 components of the index contributed positively in December,” she
added, noting that the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less
negative, signalling fewer headwinds to U.S. economic activity ahead. “Nonetheless,
we expect growth momentum to remain strong to start the year and US real GDP to
expand by 2.3% in 2025,” Zabinska-La Monica said.