| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | December | -25.1 | 10.3 | 0.7 |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | November | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y | November | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | November | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | ZEW Economic Sentiment | January | 17 | 16.9 | 18.0 |
| 10:00 | Germany | ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment | January | 15.7 | 15.3 | 10.3 |
GBP fell against most of the other major currencies in the European session on Tuesday as data showed that the UK pay growth accelerated in November, reinforcing the Bank of England rate-cut bets.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in Britain increased 5.6% YoY in the three months to November 2024, accelerating from 5.2% YoY in the previous three-month period. This marked the strongest gain since May 2024 and aligned with economists’ forecasts. Average earnings, excluding bonuses, also increased to 5.6% YoY, the most in six months.
The ONS also announced that the UK’s unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% in September to November 2024, disappointing economists who had expected the indicator to remain unchanged at 4.3%.
In addition, the ONS revealed its estimates showed that the number of vacancies in the UK fell for the three months from October to December, marking the 30th straight decline in the data.
The latest data prompted investors to increase slightly their BoE rate cut expectations. According to Bloomberg, markets are now pricing in 64 basis points of rate decreases by the British central bank in 2025, up 2 basis points to those bets this morning. This implies that three reductions in the Bank Rate are seen as possible this year.