Data published by the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) showed that the index of leading economic indicators declined markedly in December, falling slightly below its medium-term average and indicating a deterioration in the outlook for the Swiss economy.
According to the report, the index of leading economic indicators fell to 99.5 points from 102.9 points in November (revised from 101.8 points). Economists had expected the index to fall to 101.1 points.
KOF said that the indicator bundles included in the economic barometer all contribute to the negative development. In particular, the indicator bundles for manufacturing and for other services, as well as the indicator bundles for the hospitality industry, for foreign demand and for private consumption decrease considerably. Within the producing industry (manufacturing and construction), the sub-indicators for different aspects of business activity show predominantly downward tendencies. Within manufacturing, the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, the textile industry, as well as machinery and equipment manufacturing are all under pressure. Meanwhile, the wood, glass, stone and earth segment indicates more positive developments.
Earlier this month, KOF slightly lowered its forecasts for economic growth. KOF is forecasting Swiss GDP growth of 0.9% excluding major international sporting events this year (1.3% including these events), which represents a downward revision of 0.2% compared with the autumn forecast. For 2025, real sport-adjusted GDP growth is expected to be 0.2% lower at 1.4% (1% non-adjusted). The main reason for these downward revisions is the sluggish performance of the international environment – particularly in Germany and France.