China's manufacturing sector is expected to expand for a third consecutive month in December, providing hope for policymakers aiming to stabilize the economy ahead of potential new U.S. tariffs. The data will be released on Thursday.
A Reuters poll of 28 economists predicts the official PMI will hold at 50.3, signaling continued growth. Beijing's late-year stimulus measures are intended to revive the struggling property market, boosting domestic demand and insulating manufacturers from global economic headwinds.
Despite mixed industrial output and retail data in November, China’s leadership targets around 5% growth for 2025, with calls for increased consumer-focused stimulus. However, looming U.S. tariffs—potentially exceeding 60%—threaten China’s export-driven growth.
To counter economic pressures, Chinese policymakers are preparing to expand the budget deficit, issue more debt, and ease monetary policy. The World Bank recently raised China’s growth outlook but warned that weak household and business confidence, along with property sector challenges, could limit progress. The property market, once contributing 25% to the economy, remains crucial for boosting consumption.