| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | HICP, Y/Y | November | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y | November | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | HICP, m/m | November | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | November | 2% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | November | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI | November | 0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
GBP fell against most of the other major currencies in the European session on Wednesday as investors responded to the UK’s inflation data for November, which revealed a sharp rebound in price pressures last month.
The pound depreciated versus most of its major counterparts but for CAD and AUD.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the consumer prices index (CPI) surged 2.6% YoY last month, fastening from 2.3% YoY in October. This marked the highest inflation rate since March (3.2% YoY) and aligned with economists’ forecasts. Meanwhile, services inflation -closely watched by the British central bank - remained unchanged at 5.0% YoY, marginally below economists’ projection of 5.1% YoY but slightly above the BoE’s expectation of 4.9% YoY.
Combined with recent data that indicated a stall in the UK’s economic expansion and acceleration in pay growth, today’s CPI figures reinforced stagflationary worries and cemented the bets on no rate change at tomorrow’s meeting of the Bank of England. For 2025, markets now predict only two 25-basis-point rate decreases by the BoE, down from three at the beginning of the week.