Oil prices declined by 1.5% on Friday, mainly due to reduced concerns over Hurricane Rafael's impact on U.S. oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and ongoing assessments of how Donald Trump’s potential policies might influence the market. But since the beginning of the week, Brent crude rose by 2.6%, while WTI increased by 2.4%.
Although the hurricane led to a temporary halt in 391,214 barrels per day of U.S. crude output, it is expected to move away from U.S. fields, reducing potential disruptions.
The oil market remains sensitive to Trump’s potential policy decisions, which could impose stricter sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, curbing their oil supply. Despite this, experts predict that Trump's policy shifts might be constrained by institutional checks or moderated by his advisors. BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, noted that the effect of Trump’s policies on the oil market by 2025 might be limited.
Simultaneously, China's reduced oil imports—down 9% in October—along with rising U.S. crude inventories, contributed to downward pressure on prices. China’s planned fiscal stimulus aims to counterbalance economic pressures, which could provide demand support. Analysts are monitoring whether a Trump administration would influence oil supply expansion in the U.S. and impose tariffs affecting China's economy.
Despite broader expectations of a potential oversupply in 2025, factors such as instability in the Middle East and possible fluctuations in Iranian and Venezuelan exports could impact market dynamics. Meanwhile, economists expect that the Fed may have to slow down the pace of monetary easing due to the inflationary impact of Trump's policies, including tax cuts and trade tariffs.