Oil prices rose by about 0.3%, while markets braced for an exceptionally close U.S. presidential election. The day before, prices had surged over 2% after OPEC+ delayed a planned production increase, citing weak demand and rising non-OPEC supplies.
According to analysts, the market is in the “calm before the storm,” as traders await multiple events: the U.S. election, a Federal Reserve policy meeting, and China's National People's Congress (NPC).
Experts warn that the close U.S. race could impact markets if results are delayed or contested. The election's outcome may also significantly impact U.S. trade, foreign policy, and energy sectors. A second Trump administration could favor the U.S. shale industry, while tighter Iran sanctions and reduced restrictions on Russian oil may also emerge.
Traders are also watching China’s NPC for signals of economic stimulus, though substantial announcements are unlikely before the U.S. election.
OPEC+ recently opted to delay a production hike by one month, but oil production in Libya has resumed, while Iran has approved a 250,000 barrels-per-day output increase. The Gulf of Mexico is also experiencing potential supply risks as a tropical storm, expected to intensify into a category 2 hurricane, could disrupt U.S. oil production by as much as 4 million barrels.