| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:30 | France | GDP, q/q | Quarter III | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 06:30 | France | GDP, Y/Y | Quarter III | 1% | 0.7% | 1.3% |
| 08:55 | Germany | Unemployment Change | October | 17 | 18 | 27 |
| 08:55 | Germany | Unemployment Rate s.a. | October | 6% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| 09:00 | Germany | GDP (QoQ) | Quarter III | -0.3% | -0.1% | 0.2% |
| 09:00 | Germany | GDP (YoY) | Quarter III | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| 09:00 | Switzerland | SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks | | | | |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | Consumer Confidence | October | -12.9 | -12.5 | -12.5 |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | GDP (QoQ) | Quarter III | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | GDP (YoY) | Quarter III | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
EUR appreciated against most of the other major currencies in the European session on Wednesday as investors weighed the preliminary estimates of the euro area’s GDP growth for the third quarter and the flash inflation data from Spain and German states for October.
Eurostat reported its advance estimates showed the Eurozone’s economy expanded by 0.4% QoQ in the third quarter after a 0.2% QoQ increase in the previous quarter. This marked the strongest quarterly rise since the third quarter of 2022 (+0.6% QoQ) and exceeded economists’ forecast of a 0.2% QoQ growth. On a YoY basis, the euro area’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.9%, the most since the first quarter of 2023 (+1.3% YoY). Economists had predicted an 0.8% increase.
The region’s third-quarter GDP figures beat expectations due in part to a surprise increase in Germany (0.2% QoQ versus economists’ forecast of -0.1% QoQ) and stronger-than-anticipated gains in France (+0.4% QoQ versus economists’ forecast of +0.3% QoQ) and Spain (+0.8% versus economists’ forecast of +0.6% QoQ ).
Meanwhile, flash inflation reports from Spain and Germany’s major states indicated a rebound in price pressures in October.
The National Statistics Institute (INE) announced its preliminary estimates revealed that Spain's consumer price index (CPI) jumped 1.8% YoY in October, following a 1.5% YoY in September. This marked the first acceleration in the country’s annual consumer inflation rate in five months and was in line with economists' expectations. Despite the October rebound, Spain’s inflation rate remained inside the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
Faster price growth in October compared to September was also reported by five German states - Saxony (to 2.8% YoY in October from 2.4% YoY in September), Bavaria (to 2.4% YoY from 1.9% YoY), Baden Wuerttemberg (to 2.1% YoY from 1.4% YoY), North Rhine Westphalia (to 2.0% YoY from 1.5% YoY) and Hesse (to 1.8% YoY from 1.2% YoY) - implying that the national inflation rate also increased.
Germany’s CPI report, set to be released at 13:00 GMT, is expected to show the country’s harmonised inflation rate rose 2.1% YoY this month, quickening from 1.8% YoY in September.
The flash October inflation data for the entire euro area will be released on Thursday.
Today’s data added to arguments for a gradual pace of policy easing by the ECB, prompting investors to trim their bets on a 50-basis-point rate reduction in December. According to Bloomberg, markets now see only a 25% probability of an outsized cut at the ECB’s final meeting this year compared to 50% earlier this month.