| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | August | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | September | 0.3 | 20.2 | 27.9 |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | August | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| 06:45 | France | CPI, m/m | September | 0.5% | -1.2% | -1.2% |
| 09:00 | France | IEA Oil Market Report | | | | |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Industrial production, (MoM) | August | -0.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | ZEW Economic Sentiment | October | 9.3 | 16.9 | 20.1 |
| 09:00 | Germany | ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment | October | 3.6 | 10 | 13.1 |
GBP strengthened against most of the other major currencies in the European session on Tuesday as investors weighed the latest data on the UK's labour market.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the number of people employed in the UK jumped by 373,000 in the three months to August, following a 265,000 climb in May through July. That marked the strongest gain in job creation on record and exceeded economists’ forecast of 250,000. Meanwhile, Britain’s unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in June through August from 4.1% in the previous three-month period, marginally below economists’ prediction of 4.1%. The average regular earnings growth softened to 4.9% YoY, down from 5.1% YoY in May through July. That represented the lowest growth since June 2022.
The latest jobs and wages data had little influence on markets’ bets on the near-term rate actions by the Bank of England.
According to Bloomberg, markets are now pricing in 22 points of rate cuts for the BoE’s November meeting, so a cut is still seen as strongly likely.
Tomorrow, investors will receive the UK’s September inflation data, which are expected to show that the headline inflation rate dropped from 2.2% YoY in August to 1.9% YoY last month and the core measure decreased from 3.6% YoY to 3.5% YoY.