| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (MoM) | August | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (YoY) | August | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% |
GBP appreciated against most of its major rivals in the European session on Friday as investors digested the UK retail sales data for August.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported earlier today that retail sales in Britain climbed by 1.0% MoM in August, following an upwardly revised 0.7% MoM surge in July. That was the strongest monthly gain since May and exceeded economists' forecast of a 0.4% MoM advance. Compared to August of 2023, retail sales surged 2.5%, the most since February 2022. The annual reading was well about economists’ prediction of a 1.4% YoY increase.
Combined with Wednesday's inflation report, which confirmed sticky inflation in Britain, the latest report justified yesterday’s decision by the Bank of England not to hurry with the second rate cut.
Following the retail sales data, investors also slightly trimmed their bets on a rate cut at the BoE’s next meeting in November. According to Reuters, money markets are now seeing a 71% probability of a 25 basis points rate decrease in November.