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21.08.2024

UK budget deficit fell sharply in July, but exceeded forecasts - ONS

According to the report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in March, net borrowing by the public sector, excluding state-owned banks (PSCB ex) was 3.1 billion pounds, the highest July borrowing since 2021. Initial estimates for July suggest that borrowing was 1.8 billion pounds higher than July last year, and 3.0 billion pounds higher than the 0.1 billion pounds forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Economists had expected a deficit of 1.5 billion pounds in July. PSCB ex in the financial year-to-July was 51.4 billion pounds, 0.5 billion pounds less than in the same four-month period a year earlier but the fourth highest year-to-July borrowing since monthly records began in January 1993.

Central government's receipts increased in July by 1.7 billion pounds compared to July 2023, to 91.0 billion pounds. Meanwhile, the central government's total expenditure was 107.4 billion pounds, 3.5 billion pounds more than in July 2023. In July, the interest payable on central government debt was 7.0 billion pounds. This was the second highest interest payable in any July since records began (for this component), in 1997.

Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks was provisionally estimated at 99.4% of GDP at the end of July. This was 3.8% more than at the end of July 2023, and remains at levels last seen in the early 1960s. Excluding the Bank of England, debt was 91.9% of GDP, 4.9% more than at the end of July 2023 but 7.5% lower than the wider debt measure.

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