| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | Australia | Unemployment rate | July | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% |
| 01:30 | Australia | Changing the number of employed | July | 52.2 | 26.5 | 58.2 |
| 02:00 | China | Retail Sales y/y | July | 2% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| 02:00 | China | Industrial Production y/y | July | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% |
| 02:00 | China | Fixed Asset Investment | July | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | June | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (MoM) | June | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | June | 0.4% | 0% | 0% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, q/q | Quarter II | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies, while investors continued to analyze yesterday's US inflation data and prepared for the release of new reports that will help clarify the state of the US economy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.02% to 102.58. Yesterday's data showed that US consumer prices rose in line with forecasts in July, easing expectations of a significant reduction in the Fed's interest rate next month. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 37.5% probability of a 0.5% rate cut in September (down from 55% a week earlier), and a 45.1% probability of 0.25% rate cut in November (down from 52.1% a week earlier). Meanwhile, investors continue to predict that the overall scale of rate cuts in the United States this year will be at least 100 basis points. Today, investors will focus on the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as July data on retail sales and industrial production. Despite the unchanged retail sales figure in June, retail spending again exceeded expectations, and core retail spending remained at the same level. Retail sales in the control group increased by an impressive 0.9%, driven by a 1.9% increase in non-store sales. Much of the weakness in overall sales in the June report was due to a 2.0% decline in car sales and a 3.0% drop in gasoline sales. Although retail sales in June demonstrated consumer resilience, they are still consistent with the moderate pace of retail spending growth that followed the pandemic. Experts expect the recent moderate growth rates to continue in the July data against the background of a recovery in car sales. However, retail sales prospects for the rest of the year are being held back by a slowdown in the labor market and slower growth in real incomes. According to forecasts, retail sales increased by 0.3% in July.
The Australian dollar rose 0.4% against the US dollar, helped by Australian labor market data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said that in July the number of people employed increased sharply - by 58.2 thousand after an increase of 52.2 thousand in June (revised from 50.2 thousand). It was the largest growth since February. Economists had expected employment growth of 26.5 thousand. Full-time employees surged by 60.5 thousand, while part-time employees decreased by 2.3 thousand. However, the jobless rate still ticked higher as worker participation hit record peaks in a sign labor demand remains solid despite high borrowing costs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (the highest since January 2022) from 4.1% in June. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged. Against the background of recent data, markets pared back the chance for an interest rate cut this year, with the probability of a November easing now seen at 35%, down from 55% before the release.