| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | Australia | Unemployment rate | June | 4% | 4% | 4.1% |
| 01:30 | Australia | Changing the number of employed | June | 39.5 | 20 | 50.2 |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | May | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | May | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | June | 51.9 | 23.4 | 32.3 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies, remaining near its lowest level since May 21 amid increased expectations that the Fed will soon begin easing monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.01% to 103.75. Yesterday, the index fell by 0.57%, as signs of slowing inflation in the United States, increasing investor confidence that a rate cut is coming has put pressure on the US currency. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 4.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 96.2% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 98.5% probability of monetary policy easing in November. Overall, investors expect the Fed to cut the rate by more than 60 basis points by the end of the year.
The yen declined 0.1% against the US dollar, but remained near the six-week high reached yesterday. According to experts, yesterday's drop in USD/JPY by 1.38% was caused by another intervention by the Japanese authorities to support the national currency. Meanwhile, Japan's chief currency diplomat Masato Kanda said he would have to react accordingly if speculators caused excessive movements in the foreign exchange market. He also added that there is no limit to the frequency of government interventions. According to Kanda, although there are various factors behind currency fluctuations, "the most important of them is speculation".
The Australian dollar rose 0.2% against the US dollar amid mixed data on the Australian labor market. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said that in June the jobless rate rose to 4.1%, while it was expected to remain unchanged at 4%. Meanwhile, employment increased by 50,200, much bigger than economists' forecast of 20,000. The participation rate came in at 66.9%, up from 66.8% in May. The employment-to-population ratio rose by 0.1% to 64.2%. “Both the employment-to-population ratio and participation rate continued to be near their 2023 highs. This, along with the continued high level of job vacancies, suggests the labor market remains relatively tight, despite the unemployment rate being above 4.0 per cent since April», said ABS head of labor statistics Bjorn Jarvis.