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08.07.2024

CB’s U.S. employment trends index drops 0.7 per cent in June

The Conference Board (CB) announced on Monday its employment trends index (ETI) for the U.S., a leading composite indicator for employment, fell by 0.7 per cent to 110.27 in June from a downwardly revised 111.04 (from 111.44) in May.

According to the report, last month’s drop in the ETI was due to negative contributions from 4 of its 8 components, including Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, and Job Openings.

Commenting on the latest data, Will Baltrus, associate economist at the CB, said that the ETI’s downtick signals employment could decrease in the second half of 2024 but noted that the indicator remains above its pre-pandemic level, and payrolls growth remains healthy, albeit at a reduced pace compared to the outsized gains experienced during  the pandemic recovery. “While June’s ETI suggests an aggregate reduction in employment ahead, we anticipate the labour market will only cool modestly. Indeed, as long as companies are willing to retain workers, net nonfarm payrolls are likely to remain positive,” he added.

 

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