| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | Germany | Trade Balance (s.a.), bln | May | 22.2 | 20.3 | 24.9 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, but remains near its lowest level since June 13, reached on Friday amid data on the US labor market.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.12% to 105.01. On Friday, the index fell by 0.24%, as data showed that employment growth in the US slowed slightly in June, and the unemployment rate rose, which confirms the view that the Fed may start cutting interest rates in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 6.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 75.7% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 85.9% probability of monetary policy easing in November. However, these expectations will change significantly after the publication of the June US CPI data (on Thursday, at 12:30 GMT). The May CPI report provided another welcome indication that inflation is slowing again after a sharp rise at the beginning of the year. The overall consumer price index remained unchanged for the month, which was the first unchanged value since July 2022. Falling energy prices and a slight rise in food prices helped keep the overall consumer price index under control. The core consumer price index rose by 0.2%, which was the smallest increase since August 2021. It is encouraging that steady service sector inflation has finally shown signs of easing, largely due to lower prices for airline tickets, vehicle insurance and accommodation away from home. The CPI is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in June, which corresponds to an increase of 3.1% year-on-year. The core CPI, according to forecasts, increased by 0.2% compared to May and by 3.5% per annum.
The euro fell 0.1% against the US dollar, as investors weighed the consequences of a hung French parliament, which created new uncertainty about the country's financial prospects. Polling agencies forecast the left would get 184 to 198 seats - well short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority. President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance was expected to get 160 to 169 seats, and the National Rally (RN) and its allies 135 to 143 seats.