| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:00 | New Zealand | ANZ Business Confidence | June | 11.2 | 10.2 | 6.1 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies after reaching its highest level since May 1 yesterday. The weakening of the dollar was caused by partial profit-taking, as well as correction of positions by investors ahead of the publication of US economic data.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.13% to 105.91. As for the data, the final report on US GDP for the 1st quarter will be presented today at 12:30 GMT, and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index will be released on Friday. Economists expect GDP growth to slow to 1.3% QoQ from 3.4% QoQ in Q4. As for tomorrow's data, consensus estimates suggest that the core PCE increased by 0.1% m/m in May after an increase of 0.2% m/m in April. This will be the weakest monthly growth since November 2023. Year-on-year, the core PCE is projected to grow by 2.6%, which will be the smallest increase since March 2021. If the actual data meet expectations, this will increase the likelihood of easing the Fed's monetary policy in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 10.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 62.3% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 74.5% probability of monetary policy easing in November.
The yen rose 0.25% against the US dollar, but remained near the 38-year low reached yesterday, keeping markets on alert for any signs of intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the currency. The yen fell by about 2% in June and has fallen by 12% this year, due to the significant difference in interest rates between the United States and Japan. Meanwhile, yesterday's fall in the yen below the key level of 160 per dollar made traders nervous about possible government intervention. According to analysts, despite the fact that the risk of intervention has increased, the Japanese authorities may wait for Friday's publication of US data before taking any measures to support the yen.