The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) predicts that Swiss GDP growth adjusted for sporting events will be well below average in 2024 (1.2%; March forecast: 1.1%).
Low capacity utilization in industrial production and high financing costs are likely to curb investments.
Exports will offer some degree of support, not least in light of the Swiss franc's depreciation in recent months.
Growth should be fuelled in particular by private consumption, buoyed by a further rise in employment and a fairly stable rate of inflation; the latter is expected to average 1.4% for the current year (March forecast: 1.5%).
As the global economy gradually recovers, growth is likely to normalise to 1.7% in 2025 (unchanged forecast), при этом инфляция составит 1.1% (unchanged forecast).
Unemployment is projected to stand at an annual average of 2.4% in 2024 (March forecast: 2.3%), followed by an annual average of 2.6% in 2025 (March forecast: 2.5%).
The economic outlook is subject to both downside and upside risks.
In the first quarter of 2024, Switzerland's GDP adjusted for sporting events continued the moderate pace of growth from the previous quarters.
Numerous indicators currently point to moderate growth for the Swiss economy in the near future.
The world economy has been largely heterogeneous in the recent past.
This will have a correspondingly dampening effect on exposed areas of the Swiss export economy.
Overall, global demand from the Swiss perspective is expected to remain below its historical average in the coming quarters.
Armed conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine in particular continue to pose geopolitical risks. This could have a knock-on effect on inflation if commodity prices or shipping costs were to rise sharply.
In addition, existing risks associated with global debt, corrections on the property and financial markets and the balance sheet risks at financial institutions could intensify.
Developments in Germany and China pose additional risks for the international economy and Swiss foreign trade.
A more pronounced slowdown in German industry could have a worse impact than expected on the affected sectors of the Swiss economy.
China's economy could cool down more than expected due to the crisis in the property sector, the high level of debt and the downbeat sentiment of companies and households.
On the other hand, it is possible that growth will normalize more quickly than is currently foreseeable. This could happen if global inflation falls faster than expected, for example in response to a rapid de-escalation of armed conflicts.