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12.06.2024

European session review: USD edges lower with all eyes on U.S. May inflation report, Fed June meeting’s outcomes

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
06:00GermanyCPI, m/mMay0.5%0.1%0.1%
06:00United KingdomManufacturing Production (MoM) April0.3%-0.2%-1.4%
06:00GermanyCPI, y/y May2.2%2.4%2.4%
06:00United KingdomIndustrial Production (MoM)April0.2%-0.1%-0.9%
06:00United KingdomGDP m/mApril0.4%0%0%


USD slipped against most of its major rivals in the European session on Wednesday as investors waited for the release of the U.S. May inflation data and the announcement of the outcomes of the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting later in the day.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, dropped 0.10% from the previous close to 105.12.

Investors will receive the U.S. key inflation report for May at 12:30 GMT - just five and a half hours before the announcement of the results of the Fed's latest meeting. Economists predict it will show the headline inflation gauge held steady at 3.4% YoY last month, while the core inflation measure, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, slipped to 3.5% YoY from 3.6% YoY in April.

Markets are not expecting any changes in the Fed's interest rates, which stay at a two-decade high, when the U.S. central bank publishes its policy update, but are focused instead on its policymakers’ updated quarterly projections of economic growth, inflation and, specially, interest rates' path. Some market participants warn that today's May CPI release might have a heavy influence on the Fed's views. 

The last set of the Fed officials’ rate projections, published in March, pointed to three 25-basis-point rate decreases in 2024. Bloomberg says economics, surveyed by it, mostly expect that today’s rate projections will signal two cuts this year.

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