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07.06.2024

European session review: USD edges lower with all eyes on key U.S. May jobs report

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
06:00GermanyTrade Balance (s.a.), blnApril22.322.622.1
06:00GermanyIndustrial Production s.a. (MoM)April-0.4%0.3%-0.1%
09:00EurozoneGDP (QoQ)Quarter I-0.1%0.3%0.3%
09:00EurozoneGDP (YoY)Quarter I0.2%0.4%0.4%


USD slipped against most of the other major currencies in the European session on Friday as investors looked to the key U.S. jobs report later in the day, which is anticipated to show further signs of weakening in the labour market, justifying bets on an autumn interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. 

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, slipped 0.02% from the previous close to 104.09.

Economists expect today’s employment report will show that the U.S. economy added 175,000 new jobs last month, down from 185,000 in April, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9% and average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% MoM, marginally up from the 0.2% MoM advance in April.

Ahead of the much-expected release, markets are seeing a 68.2% probability the Fed will deliver a rate reduction at its September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Markets increased their bets on the September rate decrease after a recent slate of softer-than-forecast economic data from the U.S. A week ago, the odds for the September rate cut stood at 54.8%.

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