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07.06.2024

Gold prices fell sharply ahead of the release of US data

The price of gold fell by more than $30 per ounce, which was caused by partial profit-taking after recent price increases, as well as a correction of positions by investors ahead of the publication of important US labor market data. Pressure on prices was also exerted by the news that China halted reserves buying after an 18-month stretch.

The yield on 10-year bonds rose by 1.8 basis points to 4,299%, but remained near the lowest level since April 1, reached yesterday.

Markets now look forward to the U.S. non-farm payrolls data at 12:30 GMT, which will help clarify the state of the labor market. A run of weaker macro data this week added to signs that inflation was cooling and that the Fed would start easing monetary policy as early as September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 20.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 68.2% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 79.4% probability of monetary policy easing in November. Overall, markets currently price in 50 basis points of cuts by end-December.

As for today's data, economists expect that 185,000 new jobs were created in the US economy in May, which is higher than in April (175,000). Forecasts also suggest that the unemployment rate remained at 3.9% and the wage growth rate stabilized at 3.9% YoY.

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