The survey results provided by Reuters showed that the growth of manufacturing activity in China probably stabilized in May. According to the average forecast of 33 economists, the manufacturing PMI, which will be published tomorrow at 01:30 GMT, amounted to 50.4 points in May. If the forecast is confirmed, it will be the third month in a row when the index remains above 50 points, indicating an expansion of activity in the sector.
Meanwhile, about 33% of respondents forecast a decline in the manufacturing PMI in May, including Standard Chartered, who returned the lowest reading of 50.1. Meanwhile, ING experts predict a rise in the manufacturing PMI to 50.8. Overall, these conflicting forecasts highlight increased uncertainty about China's economic growth prospects. In the 1st quarter, China's GDP grew by 5.3% per annum, exceeding economists' forecasts (+5.0% per annum), and accelerated compared to the 4th quarter (+5.2% per annum). At the same time, a number of recent economic data for April indicated that the economy has successfully navigated some near-term downside risks. But analysts say there is still no definitive opinion on whether this rebound will be sustainable, given the ongoing problems in China's real estate sector.
Yesterday, the IMF raised its forecast for China's GDP growth for 2024 from 4.6% to 5%, citing that it sees "opportunities for a more comprehensive package of measures to address the problems of the real estate sector."