| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:30 | Germany | Manufacturing PMI | May | 42.5 | 43.1 | 45.4 |
| 07:30 | Germany | Services PMI | May | 53.2 | 53.5 | 53.9 |
| 08:00 | Eurozone | Services PMI | May | 53.3 | 53.5 | 53.3 |
| 08:00 | Eurozone | Manufacturing PMI | May | 45.7 | 46.2 | 47.4 |
| 08:30 | United Kingdom | Purchasing Manager Index Services | May | 55.0 | 54.7 | 52.9 |
| 08:30 | United Kingdom | Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing | May | 49.1 | 49.5 | 51.3 |
EUR strengthened against most of its major rivals in the European session on Thursday as investors digested the data on the wage growth in the Eurozone for the first quarter of 2024 and the region’s flash PMI readings for May.
The European Central Bank reported that the negotiated pay growth in the euro area rebounded in the first quarter, rising to 4.7% YoY from 4.5% YoY in the previous quarter and matching a record set in the third quarter of 2023.
This unexpected acceleration in the Eurozone’s negotiated salaries raised concerns about potential inflationary pressures in the region resulting from growing pay growth but did not change the markets’ views that the ECB’s first rate reduction is to come in June.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s flash PMI readings for May, which showed a stronger-than-expected increase in the euro area’s private-sector activity, prompted investors to trim slightly their rate-cut bets. According to Bloomberg, markets now see 62 basis points of policy easing by the ECB this year, implying two quarter-point rate decreases and a 50% probability of the third move.
Economists, however, note that, even as today’s data will not restrain the ECB from rate lowering next month, it likely limits its rate actions beyond June.