The results of a Reuters poll conducted among 17 economists showed that in the 1st quarter, Japan's gross domestic product probably decreased by 1.5% per annum, offsetting the 0.4% annual growth recorded in the 4th quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, the economy was forecast to contract 0.4% after expanding 0.1% in the fourth quarter. Experts warned that if this forecast is confirmed, the probability that the Central Bank of Japan will continue to tighten monetary policy in the near future will decrease markedly.
Respondents also said that private consumption - which accounts for more than 50% of the economy - probably declined by 0.2% in quarterly terms, as rising living costs and a significant depreciation of the national currency forced consumers to save. The earthquakes that occurred on the Noto Peninsula earlier this year also had a negative impact on production and consumption.
The survey also revealed that capital expenditures probably fell by 0.7% QoQ, while net exports probably reduced GDP growth by 0.3%. Meanwhile, the corporate goods price index, a key gauge of prices corporations charge against each other, is expected to rise 0.8% per annum in April after a similar increase in March.