The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) predicts that Swiss GDP growth adjusted for sporting events will be significantly below average in 2024 (1.1%; unchanged forecast).
As the global economy gradually rebounds, growth is projected to normalize at 1.7% in 2025 (unchanged).
The economic outlook is subject to both downside and upside risks.
The Swiss economy sustained a moderate pace of growth in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Numerous indicators currently suggest that Swiss economic growth will remain moderate in the near future.
The world economy has been largely heterogeneous until recently.
Overall, Switzerland expects global demand to remain below its historical average until the end of 2025.
Investment expectations have been revised downwards since the December forecast.
The loss of investment momentum is mainly due to falling industrial capacity utilization and higher financing costs.
Consumer spending should continue to support growth, helped by a favorable labor market situation and a decline in inflation.
Employment is set to grow slightly faster in 2024 than previously forecast.
Given the moderate pace of economic growth, the unemployment rate should average 2.3% over the year (unchanged forecast).
As in other countries, inflation in Switzerland has also been declining recently, due in part to energy prices but also the strengthening of the Swiss franc.
Inflation is expected to average 1.5% this year (December forecast: 1.9%).
A degree of normalization is expected in the second half of the forecast horizon.
The inflation rate in 2025 is predicted to be 1.1% (unchanged forecast).