| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | Germany | Trade Balance (s.a.), bln | February | 16.2 | 17.8 | 17.7 |
| 06:00 | Germany | Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) | February | 2% | -1.1% | -1.3% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Halifax house price index | March | -0.2% | 0.2% | -0.5% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined significantly against major currencies, resuming its decline after a temporary rebound on Friday, as President Trump doubled down on his aggressive tariff strategy, fueling investor concerns about a potential recession and prompting bets that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates as early as May.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.51% to 102.49. Futures markets now price in nearly five rate cuts for the year, driving Treasury yields lower and weakening the dollar, even against safe-haven currencies. Trump dismissed market concerns, stating no deal with China would be made until the trade deficit is resolved. Meanwhile, China hinted that its response would reflect market sentiment. JPMorgan economist Bruce Kasman warned that continued trade tension could derail the current global growth, estimating a 60% chance of recession. He expects the Fed to start cutting rates in June and continue at each meeting through January, lowering the upper bound to 3.0%. Although inflation is expected to rise due to tariffs, investors believe recession fears outweigh the inflation threat. U.S. consumer price data due later this week is expected to show another 0.3% increase in March, but analysts believe it's only a matter of time before tariffs sharply raise prices on everything from food to cars.
The yen rose by 1.05% against the US dollar amid increased demand for safe haven assets. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) warned that uncertainty around the country’s economic outlook is increasing, as some companies expressed concern over potential profit losses due to U.S. trade tensions. The warning reflects growing fears that President Trump’s tariffs could disrupt Japan’s moderate recovery. In its quarterly meeting with regional branch managers, the BOJ maintained its view that all nine regions are either recovering or picking up moderately. However, it emphasized that uncertainty is rising - especially around corporate output and earnings due to escalating U.S. trade measures. The BOJ’s regional assessments will be closely watched ahead of its April 30–May 1 policy meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%.