| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 09:00 | Germany | IFO - Business Climate | March | 85.3 | 87 | 86.7 |
| 09:00 | Germany | IFO - Current Assessment | March | 85 | 84.9 | 85.7 |
| 09:00 | Germany | IFO - Expectations | March | 85.6 | 91.5 | 87.7 |
USD weakened slightly against most of its major rivals in the European session on Tuesday, as investors awaited the release of the U.S. March consumer confidence report later in the day.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, decreased 0.14% from its previous close to 104.11.
Conference Board (CB) will publish its consumer confidence survey at 16:00 GMT. Economists expect it to show a further deterioration in the sentiment of U.S. consumers after a steep decline - the largest one since August 2021 - in February amid growing concerns about the potential negative economic impact of the Trump administration’s policies. The CB consumer confidence index is anticipated to come in at 94.0, down from 98.3 in February. Weaker-than-expected data can put downward pressure on the U.S. currency.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to receive certain support from yesterday’s S&P Global's stronger-than-expected flash U.S. PMI activity data and lingering uncertainty over the scope of U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, set to come into effect on April 2.
Another notable release of the week will be the U.S. personal income and spending report on Friday, which contains the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation - the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. Economists forecast the indicator to show a 0.3% MoM gain and 2.7% YoY soar. In the previous month, the core PCE index recorded advances of 0.3% MoM and 2.6% YoY.
Hotter-than-expected core PCE inflation would justify the Fed's patience approach to rate cuts.
Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic unveiled yesterday that he sees one rate reduction this year (compared to markets’ bets for two cuts) as he expects inflation to be “very bumpy and not move dramatically and in a clear way to the 2% target”.