Notizie economiche
30.01.2025

French economy unexpectedly contracted in the 4th quarter

Preliminary data published by INSEE showed that GDP fell by 0.1% in the 4th quarter after an increase of 0.4% in the 3rd quarter (the highest growth since the 4th quarter of 2023). This was the first quarterly decline since the 1st quarter of 2022. Economists had expected the GDP to remain unchanged. On an annual basis, the economy expanded by 0.7% after growing by 1.2% in the 3rd quarter. Consensus estimates suggested GDP growth of 1.1%.

INSEE stated that final domestic demand (excluding inventories) slowed slightly, driven by household consumption (+0.4% after +0.6%). Gross fixed capital formation fell 0.1% after a 0.3% decline in the 3rd quarter. Overall, domestic demand (excluding inventories) made a positive contribution to GDP growth this quarter: +0.3 points after +0.4 points in the third quarter of 2024. The contribution of foreign trade to growth was again negative (-0.2 points after -0.1 points): exports fell by -0.2% after -0.8% in the 3rd quarter, while imports grew by 0.4% after falling by 0.4%. Changes in inventories also made a negative contribution to GDP: -0.1 points after +0.2 points in the third quarter of 2024.

On average over 2024, GDP increased by 1.1% after +1.1% in 2023. Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) slowed slightly (contribution of +0.7 points after +0.9 points), penalised by the decline in investment (contribution of -0.3 points after +0.2 points in 2023). Foreign trade again made a positive contribution (+0.9 points after +0.6 points).

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