According to the report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the unemployment rate (for people aged 16 years and over) was estimated at 4.4% in September to November, which is 0.1% higher than the economists' forecast and the value for the previous three-month period. This marks the highest level since the three months ending in May 2024. The economic inactivity rate was estimated at 21.6% September to November. This is below estimates of a year ago, and down in the latest quarter (-0,2%).
The ONS said that in September to December, payrolled employees fell by 11,000 (0.0%) over the quarter but rose by 134,000 (+0.4%) over the year. The claimant count increased in December by 700 on the month, to 1.744 million. Economists had expected an increase of 10,300 after falling by 25,100 in November (revised from +300). Meanwhile, in October to December, the estimated number of vacancies decreased by 24,000 q/q, to 812,000. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 30th consecutive period but are still above pre-coronavirus pandemic levels.
The data also showed that from September to November, the growth in average total pay (including bonuses) and regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 5.6% per annum (+5.2% in the previous three months) and 5.6% per annum (+5.2% in the previous three months). The latest growth was the strongest in the last 6 months. Economists expected an increase by 5.6% and 5.5%, respectively. Adjusted for inflation, wage growth in real terms was 2.4% for total pay and 2.5% for regular pay.