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13.12.2024

European session review: GBP weakens following softer-than-expected UK October GDP data

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
07:00United KingdomIndustrial Production (MoM)October-0.5%0.3%-0.6%
07:00United KingdomManufacturing Production (MoM) October-1%0.2%-0.6%
07:00GermanyTrade Balance (s.a.), blnOctober16.916.113.4
07:00United KingdomGDP m/mOctober-0.1%0.1%-0.1%
07:00United KingdomGDP, y/yOctober1%1.6%1.3%
07:45FranceCPI, m/mNovember0.3%-0.1%-0.1%
07:45FranceCPI, y/yNovember1.2%1.3%1.3%
10:00EurozoneIndustrial production, (MoM)October-1.5%-0.1%0.0%
10:00EurozoneIndustrial Production (YoY)October-2.2%-1.9%-1.2%


GBP fell against most of the other major currencies in the European session on Friday as investors responded to the weaker-than-anticipated UK GDP growth data for October.

The pound strengthened versus JPY but depreciated versus the rest of the major counterparts.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that Biritain’s economy contracted 0.1% MoM in October following a 0.1% shrinkage in the previous month. Economists had predicted a 0.1% MoM growth. 

On a YoY basis, the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.3% in October, following a 1.0% gain in September. The reading represented the strongest annual advance since June 2023 (+1.3%) but was below economists’ forecast of a 1.6% expansion.

The disappointing GDP data did not impact markets’ expectations regarding the Bank of England’s December meeting. They still see the BoE to keep its interest rates on hold next week. However, worries increased that the British central bank will be forced to ease its policy more aggressively next year. 

Denting sentiment was also GfK’s survey, which showed that consumer confidence remains subdued, reflecting ongoing concerns about Britain’s economic outlook. GfK UK consumer confidence index came in at -17 this month, up one point from November.

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