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  • International Energy Agency (IEA) lifted next year's oil-demand estimates, but warned that pace of growth is expected to remain subdued
Notizie economiche
12.12.2024

International Energy Agency (IEA) lifted next year's oil-demand estimates, but warned that pace of growth is expected to remain subdued

  • World oil demand growth is set to accelerate from 840 kb/d in 2024 to 1.1 mb/d next year, lifting consumption to 103.9 mb/d in 2025. 

  • Estimates for this year were cut from 921,000 barrels a day, largely due to lower-than-anticipated deliveries in China, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, while estimates for 2025 were raised from 990,000 barrels a day

  • Both forecasts are considerably lower than last year's growth of more than 2 million barrels a day, reflecting a weaker macroeconomic environment and shifts in oil consumption

  • Increases in both years will be dominated by petrochemical feedstocks, while demand for transport fuels will continue to be constrained by behavioural and technological progress. 

  • While non-OECD demand growth, notably in China, has slowed markedly, emerging Asia will continue to lead gains in 2024 and 2025.


  • Global oil supply rose by 130 kb/d m-o-m to 103.4 mb/d in November, up 230 kb/d y-o-y, on a continued recovery in Libyan and Kazakhstan output. 

  • Total oil supply is on track to increase by 630 kb/d this year and 1.9 mb/d in 2025, to 104.8 mb/d, even in the absence of unwinding of OPEC+ cuts. 

  • Non-OPEC+ supply rises by about 1.5 mb/d in both years, led by the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Canada and Argentina.


  • Global observed oil inventories drew by 39.3 mb in October, led by an exceptionally sharp decline in oil products (-82.3 mb) as low refinery activity coincided with a rise in global oil demand. 

  • OECD industry stocks declined by 30.9 mb to 2 778 mb, 91.6 mb below the five-year average. Preliminary data for November show global inventories rebounded, led by oil on water and non-OECD crude oil.

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