| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) | Quarter III | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 00:30 | Australia | Gross Domestic Product (YoY) | Quarter III | 1% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| 01:45 | China | Markit/Caixin Services PMI | November | 52.0 | 52.5 | 51.5 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies, while market participants continue to analyze the latest statistical data and prepare for a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, hoping to get new clues about the prospects for monetary policy after yesterday's statements by Fed policymakers did not provide definitive guidance on what they intend to do at the conclusion of their December meeting.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.10% to 106.26. Ahead of Jerome Powell's speech, investors will focus on the ADP employment report for November and ISM non-manufacturing index for November. Economists expect employment growth to slow to 150 thousand from 233 thousand in October, and the non-manufacturing index fell to 55.5 from 56.0 in October. Given that the data from ADP is released 2 days earlier than the official government report on the labor market, investors use it as a benchmark for the main employment statistics. Consensus estimates suggest that nonfarm payrolls increased by 200 thousand in November after an increase of 12 thousand in October, and the unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 4.2%. Weaker-than-expected data may strengthen the case for a rate cut at the December meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 73.8% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December (compared to 66.5% a week ago), while the probability of an additional rate cut in January is only 18.9%.
The Australian dollar fell 0.7% against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since August 5 on the back of disappointing Australian GDP data, which reinforced expectations of an earlier interest rate cut by the Central Bank. Markets moved to almost fully price in a rate cut next April at 96% from 73% before, and see a 35 basis points easing for May, from 28 bps before. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said that the economy recorded its weakest annual growth rate in decades in Q3, outside of the pandemic. Private demand was negative, with overall economic activity being propped up by government spending. According to the report, GDP grew by 0.3% after an increase of 0.2% in the 2nd quarter. Economists had expected the economy to expand by 0.4%. In annual terms, economic growth slowed to 0.8% from 1%, while consensus estimates suggested an acceleration in growth to 1.1%. Overall, analysts say today's data mean there's now a question mark hanging over the RBA's forecasts. The RBA was expecting annual growth to pick up to 1.5% by the end of this year, so annual growth of 0.8% at this stage in the cycle suggests that forecast may be difficult to achieve.