| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | Germany | GDP (QoQ) | Quarter III | -0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 07:00 | Germany | GDP (YoY) | Quarter III | 0.1% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (MoM) | October | 0.1% | -0.3% | -0.7% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (YoY) | October | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, continuing its recent rally and reaching its highest level since October 3, 2023, while market participants continued to overestimate the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.05% to 107.02. Since the beginning of the month, the index has added 2.92% amid expectations that Trump's policy may increase inflation and limit the Fed's ability to cut rates, which will put pressure on other currencies. Currently, market participants estimate a rate cut of only 77 basis points by late 2025, compared with more than 100 a few weeks ago. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 56.2% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December (compared to 61.9% a week ago). Gradually, the focus of investors' attention is shifting to US inflation data, namely the PCE price index, the publication of which is scheduled for Wednesday. Meanwhile, the US PMI indices for November will be presented today, which will help clarify the current state of the economy.
The pound declined against the US dollar and reached its lowest level since May 14, which was caused by the publication of UK retail sales data. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that retail sales fell by 0.7% in October, ending a three-month rise and recording the sharpest fall since June. Economists had expected sales to decline by 0.3% after rising 0.1% in September (revised from +0.3%). Meanwhile, in October, retail sales excluding fuel decreased by 0.9% (the strongest drop in 4 months) after an increase of 0.1% in September (revised from +0.3%). Consensus estimates suggested a 0.4% drop. In annual terms, retail sales increased by 2.4% in October, slowing compared to September (+3.2%, revised from +3.9%). Economists had expected an increase of 3.4%.
The yen fell 0.2% against the US dollar, extending its losses since the beginning of October to more than 7%. Today's data showed that core inflation in Japan rose by 2.3% per annum in October after an increase of 2.4% per annum in September. Consensus estimates suggested an increase of 2.2% per annum. In general, the strengthening of core inflation, combined with the recent recovery in consumer spending and the renewed weakening of the yen, strengthen the arguments in favor of another rate hike by the Bank of Japan next month.