| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 02:00 | China | Fixed Asset Investment | October | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| 02:00 | China | Industrial Production y/y | October | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% |
| 02:00 | China | Retail Sales y/y | October | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Business Investment, q/q | Quarter III | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | September | 1.3% | -0.1% | -1.0% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (MoM) | September | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.5% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | September | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, q/q | Quarter III | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | Quarter III | 0.7% | 1% | 1.0% |
| 07:45 | France | CPI, m/m | October | -1.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 07:45 | France | CPI, y/y | October | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies, but is preparing to record the largest weekly increase since the end of September, helped by a revision of the prospects for easing the Fed's monetary policy and expectations that Donald Trump's policy may cause an acceleration in inflation.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.04% to 106.64. Since the beginning of the week, the index has added 1.55%. The dollar was supported by yesterday's statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who noted that the Fed does not need to rush to lower interest rates, citing continued economic growth, a solid job market and sticky inflation as reasons for caution. Against the background of these statements, traders are paring bets of the pace and scale of future rate cuts, with Fed funds futures now implementing just 71 basis points worth of easing by end-2025. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 62.6% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December (compared to 64.6% a week earlier). Meanwhile, experts have warned that in the near future, the growth of the US dollar may continue, as markets are going to focus on the prospect of President Trump's policy platform.
The yen rose 0.4% against the US dollar after earlier today reaching its lowest level since July 23, which increased expectations of another intervention by the Japanese authorities. The yen has fallen by almost 11% since its peak in September and yesterday broke the level of 156 per dollar for the first time since July. The Bank of Japan announced today that Central Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda will give a speech and hold a press conference on Monday. Investors will be closely watching his statements for hints on whether the Central Bank may raise interest rates next month.
The Australian dollar rose 0.15% against the US dollar, despite weaker-than-expected data from China (Australia's main trading partner). The National Bureau of Statistics said that industrial production grew by 5.3% per annum in October, slowing from 5.4% in September and missing expectations (+5.5%). Retail sales jumped an annual 4.8%, beating forecasts for 3.8% and up sharply from 3.2% in September. Meanwhile, fixed asset investment rose 3.4% on year, missing expectations for 3.5% but unchanged from a month earlier.