| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | Changing the number of employed | September | 42.6 | 25 | 64.1 |
| 00:30 | Australia | Unemployment rate | September | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies after reaching its highest level since August 2 yesterday amid expectations of a gradual easing of the Fed's monetary policy and a potential victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential election.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.01% to 103.60.
Experts said that the Fed's rate cut by 50 basis points is no longer priced in, and the Fed's comments are also consistent with a very gradual pace of monetary easing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 92.1% probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the November meeting (compared to 83.3% a week earlier) and a 84.3% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December (compared to 78.9% a week earlier), with a 0.46% rate cut expected by the end of the year. As for the US presidential election, Trump's plan to introduce tax breaks, softer financial regulation and higher tariffs is seen as positive for the dollar. Higher tariffs will have negative consequences for Asian currencies, in particular the Chinese yuan, and will also mean increased volatility in financial markets, which will ultimately benefit the dollar. Meanwhile, investors are preparing for the publication of U.S. retail sales and industrial production data for September, weekly statistics on applications for unemployment benefits, as well as several reports on the real estate market.
The Australian dollar rose 0.3% against the US dollar on the back of favorable data on the Australian labor market, which led traders to pare back bets of a first interest rate cut from the RBA in December. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said that the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in September, confirming economists' forecasts, while the August figure was revised up to 4.1% from 4.2%. Meanwhile, the number of employees rose by 64,100 after an increase of 42,600 in August (revised from +47,500). Consensus estimates suggested an increase of 25,000. Full-time employment jumped by 51,600, to 10.03 million, while part-time employment grew by 12,500, to 4.49 million. The report also showed that the participation rate ticked up to 67.2% from 67.1% in August. Economists had expected the participation rate to be 67.1%. Meanwhile, hours worked rose 0.3% in September, after an increase of 0.4% in August, while the underemployment rate fell 0.1%, to 6.3%.
The euro fell 0.1% against the US dollar, reaching a 2-month low, ahead of the ECB's interest rate decision. In addition to the 25 basis point rate cut expected today, experts believe that more significant progress in the fight against inflation, combined with concerns about economic growth, will force the ECB to adhere to a more consistent pace of rate cuts in the future. Most likely, the central bank will cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at each of its meetings until the end of the first quarter of 2025, and then move to cut rates quarterly, bringing the deposit rate to 2.00% by the end of 2025.