| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | National Australia Bank's Business Confidence | September | -5 | 2 | -2 |
| 00:30 | Australia | RBA Monetary Policy Statement | | | | |
| 06:00 | Germany | Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) | August | -2.9% | 0.8% | 2.9% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined against major currencies, but remains near its highest level since August 16, while market participants continue to overestimate the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy and monitor the development of the situation in the Middle East.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.13% to 102.40. Against the background of the latest stronger-than-expected data on the US labor market, the likelihood of another aggressive Fed's rate cut in November fell to 0%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 85.8% probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the November meeting (compared to 63.2% a week earlier) and a 72.6% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December (compared to 32.6% a week earlier), with a 0.5% rate cut expected by the end of the year. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said yesterday that he supports further rate cuts, as the economy moves forward on a healthy path, while noting that it is appropriate for the Fed to be cautious and not overdo the monetary easing. Gradually, the focus of investors' attention is shifting to the minutes of the Fed's September meeting (to be released on Wednesday) and CPI data for September (to be published on Thursday), which will help clarify the Fed's further actions.
The Australian dollar fell 0.5% against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since September 16, which was caused by the publication of the minutes of the last RBA meeting, which reflected the consensus to keep the cash rate unchanged. Members discussed scenarios that could lead to policy being “held restrictive for a prolonged period or tightened further”. Conversely, they acknowledged scenarios where policy could become less restrictive, such as the economy proved to be “significantly weaker than expected”. Overall, market participants assessed the tone of the meeting minutes as slightly dovish.