| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | Germany | CPI, m/m | August | 0.3% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | July | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | August | 102.3 | 95.5 | 23.7 |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | July | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
GBP strengthened against other major currencies in the European session on Tuesday as investors digested the UK labour market data, which showed a slowdown in wage growth and a stronger-than-anticipated increase in employment, supporting the case for more rate cuts by the Bank of England later this year.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that average earnings excluding bonuses surged 5.1% YoY in the three months to July, decelerating from 5.4% YoY in the three months to June. This was the lowest reading since June 2022 and matched economists’ forecasts.
The ONS also announced that the British unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in the three months to July from 4.2% in the previous three-month period, hitting a 6-month low. Meanwhile, the number of people in work increased by 265,000 in the three months to July, exceeding economists’ prediction of a 115,000 gain. This marked the strongest rise in employment since the three months to November 2022 and indicated that the UK economy was resilient.
The latest data supported markets’ notion that additional decreases in the British central bank’s benchmark rate are likely by the end of 2024. The BoE’s November meeting is seen as the most probable time for the next rate cut.