| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | Australia | Current Account, bln | Quarter II | -6.3 | -5.5 | -10.7 |
| 06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | August | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| 07:00 | Switzerland | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) | Quarter II | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, returning to a 2-week high, while market participants expect the release of new US statistical data that may affect the extent of the Fed's monetary policy easing in September.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.08% to 101.74. The key event of this week will be the publication of the nonfarm payrolls report for August (on Friday), however the focus will also be on job openings data on Wednesday and the jobless claims report on Thursday. Experts warn that the employment situation in August will be crucial in determining whether the rapid determination in employment conditions in the July report was just noise or a signal that the labor market is struggling to maintain momentum. Most likely, the situation will lean towards the second option, with only a partial recovery in employment and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate. According to forecasts, the number of employees increased by 163 thousand in August after an increase of 114 thousand in July. This data will also be crucial in breaking the debate between a 0.25% or 0.5% cut in September. If the data remains robust, a 0.25% cut is more likely, but if employment grows by less than 130,000 and the unemployment rate rises again, the probability of a 0.5% rate cut will increase. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 31% probability of a 0.5% rate cut in September (down from 36% the week before), and a 69% probability of a 0.25% rate cut (up from 64% the week before), with a 1% rate cut expected by the end of the year.
The Australian dollar fell by 0.75% against the US dollar, while investors analyzed data on Australia's current account and prepared for tomorrow's publication of the GDP report for the 2nd quarter. Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that in the 2nd quarter, the current account deficit rose to A$10.7 billion from A$6.3 billion in the 1st quarter, reaching the highest level since the 2nd quarter of 2018. This change was caused by a fall in the trade surplus and a rise in the net primary income deficit. Economists had expected the deficit to be A$5.5 billion. As for the GDP report, consensus estimates suggest that GDP grew by 0.3% q/q and by 1% per annum after an increase of 0.1% and 1.1%, respectively, in the 1st quarter.