The Conference
Board reported on Monday its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined
0.6 per cent m-o-m in July to 100.4 (2016=100), following an unrevised
0.2 m-o-m drop in June.
Economists had expected
a fall of 0.3 per cent m-o-m.
The report also
revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US
remained unchanged at 112.5 in July after a downwardly revised 0.2 per cent m-o-m advance (from +0.3
per cent m-o-m) in the previous month. Meanwhile, its Lagging Economic Index
(LAG) for the US edged down 0.1 per cent m-o-m to 119.6, following an upwardly revised 0.2 per cent m-o-m uptick (from +0.1 per cent
m-o-m) in June.
Commenting on
the latest data, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle
Indicators at the Conference Board, said that although the LEI continued to
fall on a m-o-m basis, its six-month annual growth rate no longer signals
recession ahead. She, however, noted that the latest data continue to suggest
headwinds in economic growth going forward. “The Conference Board expects US real GDP growth to slow over
the next few quarters as consumers and businesses continue cutting spending and
investments. US real GDP is expected to expand at a pace of 0.6 per cent
annualized in Q3 2024 and 1 per cent annualized in Q4,” Zabinska-La Monica added.