| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index, q/q | Quarter II | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | July | 36.2 | 14.5 | 135.0 |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | June | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | June | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies as investors are cautious ahead of the release of a slew of US data that will help clarify the state of the economy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.01% to 103.14. As for the data, the producer price index will be released later today, the CPI will be published tomorrow, data on retail sales and industrial production will be released on Thursday, and on Friday, the reports on the housing market (building permits and housing starts) and the Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index will be published. Investors will carefully analyze whether economic indicators justify their current bets on 100 basis points of Fed easing by the end of this year, as well as whether the Fed has waited too long to cut interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 49.5% probability of a 0.5% rate cut in September (down from 68% a week earlier), and a 49.7% probability of 0.25% rate cut in November (down from 56.3% a week earlier).
The yen fell 0.4% against the US dollar, as traders returned after a public holiday. Japanese equity markets were closed on Monday for the Obon holiday. Experts said that this week's data will help sharpen views on the Fed's next moves, while any hints from the PPI of soft inflationary pressures could cause financial markets to double down on wagers the Fed will sharply cut rates this year, which would weigh on the dollar.
The pound rose 0.3% against the US dollar on the back of UK labor market data, which showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in June, although wage growth slowed. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that from April to June, the unemployment rate (for those aged 16 years and over) fell to 4.2% from 4.4% (the highest value since September 2021) in the previous three month period. Economists had expected an increase to 4.5%/ The claimant count increased in July by 135,000 on the month, to 1.801 million. Economists had expected an increase of 14,500. The data also showed that from April to June, the growth in average total pay (including bonuses) and regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 4.5% per annum (+5.7% in the previous three months) and 5.4% per annum (+5.8% in the previous three months). Economists expected an increase by 4.6%.