The price of oil rose by about 2.5%, rebounding from a 7-week low. The oil rally was caused by increased tensions in the Middle East, as well as the negative dynamics of the US dollar.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.35% to 104.19.
As for the situation in the Middle East, the media reported on the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. This happened the day after the Israeli government announced the elimination of Hezbollah's most senior commander as a result of an airstrike on Beirut. In addition, the United States also struck Iraq. Meanwhile, experts warned that if the oil and gas infrastructure is not hit, oil prices may resume their decline.
Despite today's rally, since the beginning of July, Brent and WTI oil prices have fallen by 7.4% and 5.8%, respectively, which is the largest decline since October 2023. The collapse in prices was caused by concerns about the prospects for demand in China and expectations that OPEC+ would stick to its current production agreement.
Meanwhile, the latest China data from Caixin/S&P Global showed that manufacturing activity contracted again in July (for the third month in a row), but was slightly higher than forecasts. Meanwhile, activity in the service sector also declined, confirming consensus estimates. Manufacturing PMI fell in July to 49.4 points (the lowest value since February) from 49.5 points in June. Economists had expected a drop to 49.3 points. The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 points, as expected, from 50.5 points in June. While marking the 19th consecutive month of expansion in the service sector, the latest figure was the softest pace since November 2023.
"Concerns about demand in China remain elevated, and today's data only reinforces this concern. Thus, any additional price increase due to increased tensions in the Middle East may remain limited and short-lived," said the experts of the brokerage company XM.
Investors are also preparing for the release of U.S. crude oil stockpiles data at 14:30 GMT. Consensus estimates suggest that oil inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels last week after declining by 3.741 million barrels a week earlier.