| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | Australia | Building Permits, m/m | June | 5.7% | -3% | -6.5% |
| 05:30 | France | GDP, q/q | Quarter II | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 05:30 | France | GDP, Y/Y | Quarter II | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| 07:00 | Switzerland | KOF Leading Indicator | July | 102.7 | 102.5 | 101.0 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, continuing yesterday's increase, while market participants are preparing for meetings of the Central Bank and the publication of data on the US labor market.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.11% to 104.67. Yesterday, the index added 0.18%, and reached its highest level since July 11. As for the Fed meeting, the results of which will be announced on Wednesday, economists expect the interest rate to remain unchanged (5.5%). At the same time, investors will be closely watching for any hints from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about when policymakers intend to begin easing monetary policy. Although the Fed is not scheduled to meet in August, Powell could also use the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers to prepare the market for a rate cut, giving policymakers more time to assess economic data. But experts warn that the lack of a clear signal from the Fed about a rate cut in September this week could lead to a rise in the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 100% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 100% probability of monetary policy easing in November.
The yen fell 0.6% against the US dollar as investors adjusted their positions ahead of the announcement of the results of the Bank of Japan meeting (tomorrow, at 03:00 GMT). Markets will focus on whether the central bank will take (and what exactly) steps to normalize its monetary policy. Recent economic indicators have been mixed, indicating that economic growth is still uneven. Amid mixed activity and sentiment data, as well as a modest acceleration in wage and price growth, the Bank of Japan is expected to refrain from raising rates at its July meeting, but is likely to provide a detailed plan to reduce the pace of bond purchases over time (the middle-of-the-road view calling for the bank to gradually halve its monthly bond purchases over a two-year period). In addition, the Bank of Japan will publish an updated forecast for economic growth and inflation. Any significant increase in medium-term inflation forecasts may portend further rate increases.