| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:45 | France | CPI, m/m | June | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 06:45 | France | CPI, y/y | June | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
USD decreased against most of its major counterpart in the European session on Friday as investors’ bets on a September cut in the Federal Reserve’s interest rates increased noticeably after yesterday’s release of cooler-than-anticipated U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data for June.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, decreased 0.09% from the previous close to 104.35.
Thursday’s report from the U.S. Labor Department revealed that the headline CPI fell 0.1% MoM in June, recording its first monthly drop since May 2020. On a YoY basis, inflation slowed to 3.0% this month from 3.3% in May. That represented the weakest annual rate since June 2023 and was below economists’ forecast of 3.1%. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, decelerated to 3.3% YoY, the lowest level since April 2021.
The latest data added to markets’ optimism about the path of inflation in the U.S. and heightened expectations for an interest rate cut by the Fed in September.
According to the CME FedWatch, markets now see a 92.5% probability that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 17-18 meeting compared to 77.7% a week ago and 65.0% a month ago.